A picture for the coupling of unemployment and inflation

چکیده مقاله

The aim of this article is to illustrate the scaling features of two well heard characters in the media; unemployment and inflation. We carry out a scaling analysis on the coupling between unemployment and inflation. This work is based on the wavelet analysis as well as the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Through our analysis we state that while unemployment is time scale invariant, inflation is bi-scale. We show that inflation possess a five year time scale where it experiences different behaviours before and after this scale period. This behaviour of inflation provides basis for the coupling to inherit the stated time interval. Although inflation is bi-scale, it is unemployment that shows a strong multifractality feature. Owing to the cross wavelet analysis we provide a picture that illustrates the dynamics of coupling between unemployment and inflation regarding intensity, direction, and scale. The fact of the matter is that the coupling between inflation and unemployment is not equal in one way compared to the opposite. Regarding the scaling; coupling exhibits different features in various scales. In a sense that although in one scale its correlation behaves in a positive/negative manner, at the same time it can be negative/positive for another scale.